ANALYSIS: The next five years is likely to see the rapid development and deployment of new vehicle technology in the context of favourable policies taking shape in the United States, Europe, China and Israel . While the global recession, credit crunch and low oil prices will act to slow investment across the economy, aggressive industry policy to support electrification will help cushion manufacturers of electric and other highly efficient vehicles from the recession's effects.
A major problem with electric and hydrogen powered vehicles is refuelling away from an established network. This has limited the range of electric vehicles and stunted consumer demand. Combining a plug-in electric motor capable of comfortably covering city commuting (up to 100 kilometres) with a back-up combustion engine (also capable of using biofuels) for longer journeys solves this problem. This is why the plug-in hybrid has to date been more successful than 100 per cent EVs.
Environmentalism. Cost-conscious environmentalism is likely to shape demand for new technology vehicles: In developed countries, this will centre on the desire to reduce CO2 emissions and curb reliance on oil imports from ‘unfriendly' countries.
In developing countries, the focus will be the cost savings from increased energy efficiency.
The transport sector has the highest growth rate in CO2 of all end-use activities, accounting for 23 per cent of the world's energy related emissions: Unless a major shift in vehicle technology occurs, emissions are projected to grow by 2 per cent a year, with the highest rates of growth in emerging economies. This means that they will be about 80 per cent higher than current levels by 2030.
Difficult to quantify, but even more pressing, is the desire of many Western governments to boost energy security and stabilize geopolitics by lowering dependence on oil imports.
Turning points. Technological turning points tend to be heralded by bubble economies followed by crisis, which drives the impetus for change. Such a structural shift may emerge after the current economic crisis: shifting consumer preferences and politics are pushing the car industry towards more environmentally benign technologies. Several key countries are positioning themselves to be leaders in the EV market.
United States. U.S. President Barack Obama has set out a national target of deploying one million plug-in hybrids capable of 150 miles per gallon (64 kilometres per litre) by 2015, with a $7,000 tax concession for those who purchase an ‘advanced' vehicle: Production of the Chevrolet Volt, set for release in 2010, formed a centrepiece of the government bailout for car manufacturers.
The $30,000 Volt is a plug-in hybrid and uses nano-particles in an iron-phosphate battery developed in collaboration with A123 Systems.
Californian firm Tesla motors (which builds the cars in the United Kingdom) has developed a high-performance, $109,000, 100 per cent electric sports car using lithium-ion batteries to give it a range of 350 km.
California has a target of putting 7,500 zero emissions vehicles on the road by 2014, though it abandoned a similar target under which 10 per cent of all vehicles were supposed to be emissions-free by 2003.
A Nissan-Renault alliance, using batteries made by NEC, is set to challenge U.S. manufacturers by selling its own emissions-free model from next year.
Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has pledged that by 2020, 50 per cent of all cars sold will be non-petrol, and aims to convert Japan Post's fleet of 21,000 vehicles to EVs: Discount rates are to be offered on parking, insurance and loans, with ‘model districts' competing for funding to install recharging infrastructure.
Mitsubishi plans to start selling a 5-door electric hatchback (the MiEV) this year. Subaru intends to release a two-door R1e battery-electric microcar in 2010.
Toyota plans a plug-in hybrid for release next year.
Fuji Heavy Industries is also in the race to provide an EV.
Tokyo Electric Power has announced that it has developed a recharging device that gives a five-minute 40 km charge, and a 10-minute 60 km charge.
Israel. Israel intends to deploy 100,000 electric cars by 2011 supported by 500,000 recharging points. Under the banner of entrepreneur Shai Agassi's ‘Better Place', Nissan-Renault has been brought together in a public-private partnership with the Israeli government and private investors such as Morgan Stanley. With some of the highest petrol prices in the world and 90 per cent of motorists travelling less than 70 km a day between closely positioned urban centres, Israel is ideally placed to lead the world in EV deployment. Solar energy from the Negev Desert will meet the increased demand on the grid.
Portugal. Lisbon has signed a similar plan with the Shai Agassi consortium in order to deploy EVs by 2011. It envisages that EVs will eventually constitute 20 per cent of all public vehicles, and that there will be 320 recharging points by 2010, increasing to 1,300 by 2011. EVs will benefit from range of tax exemptions, including income tax benefit of up to €800.
Denmark. Denmark has also signed an agreement with the Shai Agassi consortium to deploy EVs by 2011, with 20,000 recharging stations powered by wind.
United Kingdom. London has provided £200-million to manufacturers for low-emission cars. Lotus is producing the EV for Tesla Motors and plans to bring out its own EV sports car. It is also in talks to bring European production for the GM Volt to its plant in Hethal, Norfolk. London's fleet of around 1,600 EVs (including small cars such as Norway's THINK and India's REVA) is supported by a range of tax and duty exemptions, though these have been trimmed to control excessive growth of EV traffic in the centre.
France. Paris has provided €400-million specifically in support of low emission vehicles. France is also the manufacturing home of the Renault-Nissan EV, which is set to go on sale around the world. The French government is working to introduce the plug-in hybrid in France by 2011 in partnership with electricity utility EDF.
China. China recently provided 10 billion renminbi ($1.47-billion U.S.) to fund ‘new technology vehicles', including EVs. It is aggressively promoting improved efficiency, reducing sales tax on small cars and providing subsidies to encourage owners to trade in large cars for smaller ones. China is also home to BYD, a car and battery manufacturer using ferrous-ion technology, which has recently placed a plug-in hybrid on sale in China for 150,000 renminbi. It has a range of 100 km and can recharge to 50 per cent in approximately 10 minutes.
CONCLUSION: A significant deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicles and a smaller take up of 100 per cent EVs (centred on large cities) is likely over the next six years. Energy utilities will emerge as important players – in partnership with battery providers and electronics companies – to compete with petrol retailers for the ‘refuelling' market share. EVs will also drive innovation in other areas such as improved combustion engine efficiency, IT and smart metering. Competition will be critical to spur innovation but may be mitigated by the attempts of large firms to consolidate market power.
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